Comments on: The Hot Hand Fallacy

By: liv4music

liv4music — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 21:02:46 +0000

While arguably trivial, as far as statistics is concerned, there are additional variables in sports, which can weigh in on the data, while gambling is pure chance. And when you referred to the concept of averages over longer periods of time, I believe you were referencing The Law of Large Numbers, which basically says that even if you get 8 “heads” out of 10 coin flips, as you increase the sample size, you will get closer and closer to the real probability of 50%, according to the law. Getting back to sports, disproportionately good performance would be advantageous to exploit, because games really only exist in the short-term. Furthermore, there are days for athletes that are just better. As a runner, some days I can shave five minutes of normal running time. Yes, if I averaged my times over a year, they would be about the same, but for the athlete, who aim is steadier, and truer on a particular day, it is in the interest of the player, the coach, and the team to exploit those moments of irregularity.

By: albertgenau

albertgenau — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 11:17:08 +0000

Reblogged this on albertgenau.

By: Jamie Oswald

Jamie Oswald — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 15:09:06 +0000

If you’re really interested in the hot hand, you should check out the TrueHoop blog on ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/search?query=hot+hand&x=0&y=0) . Those guys have been after it for years.

To me it’s just one more reason for us to take a HANA box and a junket to the Sloan Sports Conference (http://www.sloansportsconference.com/) in March.

By: Timo Elliott

Timo Elliott — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 14:36:27 +0000

A side note as pointed out by Nassim Taleb in his book “The Black Swan”: in real life, the odds are rarely known and pure.

Given human nature, if you do ever find yourself in a casino where the roulette wheel has comes up black twenty-six times in a row, you are probably better off assuming it has been rigged — and should therefore bet on black (or leave)…

By: Karlheinz

Karlheinz — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 08:00:47 +0000

That’s the research I had remembered. Now what’s the truth?

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/08/the-hormone-surges-that-keep-winners-winning/260914/

“Scientists have suggested that there are several elements at play: First, testosterone levels rise when animals face off, producing anabolic effects on muscle mass and hemoglobin, quickening reactions, improving visual acuity, and increasing the animal’s persistence and fearlessness.”

Should be relevant for Basketball, I guess.

By: Karlheinz

Karlheinz — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 07:57:13 +0000

Interesting, and unexpected. I think I have read about research that supporded the “hot hand” – something about a positive feedback loop between a winning streak in sports and hormone levels that in turn make you better at continuing your winning streak…